SMU Election Project - LA

McCain Wins Louisiana!

2008-11-11T14:47:00.000-08:00

When all is said and done, the 9 electoral votes that Louisiana had to cast went, unsuprisingly, to John McCain. John Mccain dramatically beat Obama in Louisiana by 58.6% to 39.9%. The victory that McCain had over Obama in Louisiana proved that these swamp folks were ready for some off-shore drilling. With 11% of voters believing that energy was one of the top issues in this election, 66% of these people were more satisfied with what McCain had to offer in this area. Of the 31% of voters who voted for a candidate because he shared their same Louisiana values, 83% of these voters believed that Mccain truly did hold the same values as they did.

While the exit polls proved that only 11% of voters thought that energy was one of the top issues, the same exit polls showed an overwhelming 53% of voters who believed that the economy was the top issue in this election. An again, of these 53% of voters 60% of them said that they cast their vote for John McCain.

Although more democrats came out to vote (42%) than republicans (38%), McCain managed to steal 25% of the democratic vote along with almost 100% of the republican vote (96%). On top of that, of the 21% of Independent voters who cast their votes in the presidential election, 62% of them went to John McCain whereas only 32% went to Senator Barack Obama.

Louisiana can be split into the new orleans area, cajun country, and north louisiana. Although Obama won the greater New Orleans area 53% to 45%, it was probably because of the large black support that Obama recieved in this area. Of the 29% of african american voters, 94% of them said that they cast their votes for Obama- most of whom live in the New Orleans area. On the other hand, a larger white population is seen in North Louisiana and Cajun Country, who combined made up 85% of the vote. Of the 65% of white voters, 84% of them voted for McCain, while only 14% of them voted for Obama. Although, Obama's race did not seem to be an issue for American voters overall, the case may be different in Louisiana. Of the 12% of voters who said that race was the most important factor, McCain won 53% to 46%, prooving that some people may have voted for McCain solely because they did not want a black man as president.

In discussing the important issue of the impact of Hurricane Katrina, one would think that McCain would lose some votes considering how poorley the Bush administration handled this issue, but of the 42% of voters who said that hurricane katrina caused hardships for their family, 56% of them voted for McCain whereas only 43% of them voted for Obama.

(to see these exit poll statistics click here.)

This is now the third presidential election in a row that Louisiana has turned solid red. Is this going to be a pattern? If Obama does a weak job in the white house I am almost certain that the state will go red in 2012, especially if their governer Bobby Jindal plans on running against Senator Barack Obama. Bobby Jindal, an indian politician, may prove to change the issue of Louisianians voting against somebody just because of their race.

Bobby Jindal for President 2012!

1 day to go- John McCain has strong lead in LA

2008-11-03T12:21:00.000-08:00

With 1 day to go, Louisiana's 9 electoral votes will go to John McCain. The election between McCain and Obama has never been close in Louisiana, and pollster.com as well as many other's show McCain ahead by double digits- 50% to 40%. Louisiana is looking for a president who shares the same views on off-shore drilling and the economy as they do, and this candidate is John McCain. With Louisiana breaking the early voting record by almost doubling the number from 128,000 in the 2004 presidential elections to 267,000 in this presidential election, it is interesting to note that the polls still have not seen a signifigant shift in McCain's lead even with so many people who have already voted.

10 days- Strong McCain

2008-10-22T12:52:00.000-07:00

And Louisiana's 9 electoral votes go to... Senator John McCain.

While Obama has enjoyed a large amount of success in gaining ground in states all over the United States, Louisiana is not one of them. Rasmussen reports suggest that results in this state have not changed since a month ago, leaving McCain ahead of Obama 53.7% to 41.5% (See this website).

With 76% of Louisiana voters claiming that the economy is getting worse, 54% of the voters believe that McCain more than Obama can handle the economic issue better. Rasmussen markets data show that McCain is currently given a 93% chance of winning the state.

While the presidential race in Louisiana has predicted a clear victory for republican John McCain, the Louisiana senate race has predicted a clear victory for democrat Mary Landrieu. The senate race between Mary Landrieu (D) and John Kennedy (R) has not been as close as past Landrieu races have been, but it has been just as entertaining. Landrieu has held a strong double digit lead over opponent Kennedy for almost the entire race, and now even some republican big wigs are endorsing Landrieu. Since John Kennedy lost advertising support from the national republican senatorial committee due to threats of other GOP canidates in different states, Landrieu's support continues to grow. With Orleans parish being Landrieus strong point, Kennedy is hoping that the "Katrina effect" in this parish will cause low voter turn out. Although Orleans parish has taken a while to get back on it's feet after the hurricane, New Orleans Criminal Clerk of Court Arthur Morell insists that because of the "obama effect" and because of the one week early voting process, 80% of registered voters still living in the city will vote. Do not be mistaken though, the "Obama effect" may be a threat to Kennedy in Louisiana, especially Orleans parish, but it has not seem to have effected the numbers in the presidential race. McCain has to strong of a Republican base in Louisiana, and with the lack of Republican support that Kennedy has, it is no wonder he is so far behind Landrieu.

Many may ask, how can a republican (McCain) win the state with such strong numbers, and a democratic (Landrieu) win the state in such strong numbers? In fact, there are many reasons why McCain may share his victory with a democratic senator from Louisiana, but a signifigant factor is that one in every four McCain voters are voting for Landrieu. While John Kennedy was planning on riding on the "coatails of Senator McCain," relying on some of these voters may prove to be a mistake. This is not only a mistake because Landrieu has support from 1 in 4 McCain voters, but also with Obama doing so well nationally, some likely McCain voters may not even turn up to the polls on election day. Even if this is true, McCain will still have a solid lead in Louisiana, but without every last vote from the McCain supporters, it does not look like Kennedy has a chance in hell. As mary Landrieu said "John McCains coatails are not long enough for you, John."

In the end, it is clear to see that for the third consecutive presidential race, Louisiana will stay red, casting their 9 electoral votes for Senator John McCain.

New Orleans mentioned only 1 time in presidential and vice presidential debates!

2008-10-21T19:49:00.000-07:00

With the current state of New Orleans, LA and all of the suffering it has endured in the last three years, one would think that a city with such cultural influence in the United States would be mentioned more than one time in all of the combined debates. New Orleans, which is such an issue when a hurricane comes a long, seems to be forgotten when the city is not under threat of a natural disaster. People tend to forget, politicians tend to forget that the people of New Orleans, Louisiana are still in a state of turmoil, and the only people who seem to care or have faith in the city are the ones who have lost everything with the city. If the problems that New Orleans have faced after Hurricane Katrina were hardly ever mentioned in this election, the hope that the next president will help more than the past president is a sick fantasy.

http://www.nola.com/elections/index.ssf/2008/10/debates_almost_a_shutout_for_n.html

Early Voting!

2008-10-21T19:47:00.000-07:00

Early voting for Louisiana starts today, Tuesday October 21.

Voter Boosts due to Presidential Election

2008-10-21T19:02:00.000-07:00

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/10/voter_rolls_are_up_in_louisian.html

Can Obama become more competitive in LA?

2008-10-04T14:12:00.001-07:00

With a drive to get more black voters to the polls, will Obama see an increase in chances to win the state? A lot of Obama's campaign is focused on bringing back democratic African American voters in Louisiana, considering the huge loss of this type of voter after Hurricane Katrina. A Louisiana Democratic chairman who is leading this cause says, "the party conducted a $2 million voter registration drive to try to offset the loss of Democratic-voting African-American residents from New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina." While the campaign is trying to find the same victory that Bill Clinton had in the state in '96 nd '92, it is not likely that his heavy dependence on the black vote in this state will get him very far (See this website!).

1 month left- LA still STRONG McCAIN

2008-10-04T14:04:00.001-07:00

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/states/louisiana

Bailout bill in LA

2008-10-04T12:39:00.001-07:00

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/louisiana_delegation_looking_f.html

50 Days: Louisiana- Strong McCain

2008-09-15T07:22:00.000-07:00

With fifty days until the election, Louisiana is Strong McCain. According to pollster.com, McCain leads 52.8% to Obama's 37.6%.

Although Louisiana is considered a 'battleground state,' the past two presidential elections have indicated that the state is turning red. In both the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections in LA, the state voted for Bill Clinton; 46% to 41%, and 52% to 40 %. In the last two presidential elections, the state has voted for George Bush; 53% to 45%, and 57% to 42%. Currently http://www.electoral-vote.com/ says that McCain is ahead in LA 55% to 38%. Both polls indicate that it is clear that Louisiana will most likely stay on the same track they have been on in the last two elections, and will vote for the Republican Nominee.

McCain is backed by 87% of Republicans and 30% of Democrats in Louisiana. Obama earns support from just 57% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain tops Obama 50% to 27%. McCain leads 68% to 19% among White voters while Obama is supported by 92% of African-Americans. McCain leads 60% to 30% among men and 50% to 37% among women. (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/polls/Louisiana-Obama-McCain-March-2008.html) While Obama is supported by 92% of African Americans in LA, many of the African Americans who reside in LA have lost homes and cars, which will affect their turn-out at the polls on November 4th. Many of them will not have the transportation, or the money to get to the polls. While this is true, there is another election in LA that may positivly affect voter turnout in LA for Obama- the senate race between Mary Landrieu (D) and John Kennedy (R). But, while Landrieu's voters may turn out, some suggest that some of her supporters are not supporters of Obama. According to (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/polls/Louisiana-Obama-McCain-March-2008.html) numbers indicate Landrieu might be better off if Obama did not campaign in Louisiana, partly because Landrieu's overall favorability rating is 53 percent among white voters while Obama's is only 26 percent. Obama's "very unfavorable" rating with white voters is 55 percent.

Although Hurricane Gustav has moved the primaries for local races, it will have no affect on the senate race because neither the republican challenger or the democratic incumbment have challengers. Basically Nov. 4th turn out will be decided by the presidential race, and because McCain is ahead by so much, it will be up to Kennedy (R) to get McCains voters on his side as well.

Although issues such as the economy and national security are among the top in LA, the natives have other issues that are just as important to them. Taking into account that Louisiana loses 2 football fields of coastal wetlands every 6 minutes, coastal erosion is a major issue. This also affects the issue of energy, because a secure coast could mean energy independence. This brings me to a third very important issue- offshore drilling. Senator Landrieu managed to get Louisiana a share of the federal offshore monies and the more drilling off the shore of Louisiana, the more money into the state coffers for repairing our coast. And of course, other major issues in LA include more attention to hurricane protection (getting the levees rebuilt, better fema responses, and better insurance coverage.) With all of these issues at hand, LA clearly wants a canidate who has expeirence and knowledge when it comes to handeling crisis situations, and this is why they support John McCain as their president.

More on moving the primaries!

2008-09-14T15:16:00.000-07:00

http://www.nationaljournal.com/congressdaily/hbp_20080908_8204.php?related=true&story1=null&story2=null&story3=null

Demographics in LA

2008-09-14T14:49:00.000-07:00

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/louisiana/election_2008_louisiana_president

Senate Race in LA

2008-09-14T14:42:00.000-07:00

Although pollster.com shows that LA is heavily leaning towards Mary Landrieu (D), for the spot in the senate, John Kennedy (R) is coming out strong with attack ad's, including criticisms of her past decisions regarding drilling. How will this senate race affect the Presidential Election in LA? How is the issue of drilling going to help/hurt the canidates on November 4th?

http://www.pollster.com/polls/la/08-la-sen-ge-kvl.php

Drilling- Major Issue in LA

2008-09-14T14:38:00.000-07:00

http://www.nationaljournal.com/congressdaily/cda_20080911_1544.php

Unemployment after Gustav

2008-09-14T14:25:00.000-07:00

Gustav Swells Unemploymentby Ed Anderson - Times-Picayune (excerpt)
BATON ROUGE -- More than 25,000 workers who have become unemployed since Hurricane Gustav have filed for unemployment benefits, 10 times more than the average weekly rate, state labor officials said Thursday. Tim Barfield, executive director of the Louisiana Workforce Commission, said that as of noon Thursday, 25,026 people have filed unemployment claims since Gustav's landfall last week. More claims are expected, he said, but he could not venture a guess of how many or the amount of benefits to be paid. "There are a significant number of claims still out there," Barfield said.

LA Reschedules primaries due to gustav! How will this effect the presidential election?

2008-09-14T13:57:00.000-07:00

http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/hr_20080910_1941.php?related=true&story1=null&story2=null&story3=null

Louisiana delegate rates RNC

2008-09-11T10:12:00.001-07:00

http://www.nola.com/elections/

The history of LA

2008-08-26T09:45:00.000-07:00

In both the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections in LA, the state voted for Bill Clinton; 46% to 41%, and 52% to 40 %. In the last two presidential elections, the state has voted for George Bush; 53% to 45%, and 57% to 42%. Currently http://www.electoral-vote.com/ says that McCain is ahead in LA 55% to 38%. It is clear that Louisiana will most likely stay on the same track they have been on in the last two elections, and will vote for the Republican Nominee.

LA electoral votes graph

2008-08-26T09:35:00.001-07:00

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/louisiana.html

Jimmy Carter on Barack Obama

2008-08-26T09:30:00.001-07:00

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gRtGNLSztv_-90_N_hYe69btBSrQD92PLTCO0