Wednesday, October 22, 2008

10 days- Strong McCain

And Louisiana's 9 electoral votes go to... Senator John McCain.

While Obama has enjoyed a large amount of success in gaining ground in states all over the United States, Louisiana is not one of them. Rasmussen reports suggest that results in this state have not changed since a month ago, leaving McCain ahead of Obama 53.7% to 41.5% (See this website).

With 76% of Louisiana voters claiming that the economy is getting worse, 54% of the voters believe that McCain more than Obama can handle the economic issue better. Rasmussen markets data show that McCain is currently given a 93% chance of winning the state.

While the presidential race in Louisiana has predicted a clear victory for republican John McCain, the Louisiana senate race has predicted a clear victory for democrat Mary Landrieu. The senate race between Mary Landrieu (D) and John Kennedy (R) has not been as close as past Landrieu races have been, but it has been just as entertaining. Landrieu has held a strong double digit lead over opponent Kennedy for almost the entire race, and now even some republican big wigs are endorsing Landrieu. Since John Kennedy lost advertising support from the national republican senatorial committee due to threats of other GOP canidates in different states, Landrieu's support continues to grow. With Orleans parish being Landrieus strong point, Kennedy is hoping that the "Katrina effect" in this parish will cause low voter turn out. Although Orleans parish has taken a while to get back on it's feet after the hurricane, New Orleans Criminal Clerk of Court Arthur Morell insists that because of the "obama effect" and because of the one week early voting process, 80% of registered voters still living in the city will vote. Do not be mistaken though, the "Obama effect" may be a threat to Kennedy in Louisiana, especially Orleans parish, but it has not seem to have effected the numbers in the presidential race. McCain has to strong of a Republican base in Louisiana, and with the lack of Republican support that Kennedy has, it is no wonder he is so far behind Landrieu.

Many may ask, how can a republican (McCain) win the state with such strong numbers, and a democratic (Landrieu) win the state in such strong numbers? In fact, there are many reasons why McCain may share his victory with a democratic senator from Louisiana, but a signifigant factor is that one in every four McCain voters are voting for Landrieu. While John Kennedy was planning on riding on the "coatails of Senator McCain," relying on some of these voters may prove to be a mistake. This is not only a mistake because Landrieu has support from 1 in 4 McCain voters, but also with Obama doing so well nationally, some likely McCain voters may not even turn up to the polls on election day. Even if this is true, McCain will still have a solid lead in Louisiana, but without every last vote from the McCain supporters, it does not look like Kennedy has a chance in hell. As mary Landrieu said "John McCains coatails are not long enough for you, John."

In the end, it is clear to see that for the third consecutive presidential race, Louisiana will stay red, casting their 9 electoral votes for Senator John McCain.

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